HCMC – Vietnam must sustain a strong economic expansion over the next 20 years to break free from the middle-income trap, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said at a meeting today, February 21.
“There is no other way. We must maintain high and sustainable growth from now until 2045. Only then can we overcome the middle-income trap, move forward, achieve strategic goals, and fulfill our aspirations for a prosperous, strong, civilized, and thriving nation, ensuring a better life for our people,” he was quoted by the Government news site (baochinhphu.vn.) as saying.
Vietnam aims for GDP growth of at least 8% in 2025 and double-digit expansion in subsequent years. The targets align with the nation’s goal of becoming a modern industrialized nation with upper-middle-income status by 2030 and a high-income economy by 2045.
The Government’s economic agenda has been endorsed by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam, and the National Assembly. “With national consensus, the priority now is execution,” Chinh said.
Only 34 economies have escaped the middle-income trap in the past 30 years, while 108 have not, according to the World Bank. Chinh cited Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan, and Singapore as examples of economies that maintained annual growth rates of 9-11% for decades before reaching high-income status, while Vietnam’s average annual growth has been 6.4% since 1986, according to data from the Ministry of Planning and Investment.
Vietnam’s GDP in 2024 is estimated at over US$470 billion, with per capita income at US$4,700. The PM said the current growth trajectory is insufficient to meet long-term targets. He called for an accelerated push over the next two decades.
Sustaining growth requires nationwide efforts. Chinh said every sector must contribute, as high growth cannot be driven by a few industries or regions alone. He also stressed the need for macroeconomic stability, low inflation, and environmental protection alongside economic expansion.
The Government plans to enhance traditional economic drivers—investment, export and consumption—while developing new sectors such as digital transformation, green growth, and the knowledge economy. It is also exploring marine, underground, and aerospace development opportunities.
Vietnam aims to lower its incremental capital-output ratio (ICOR), which remains high, signalling inefficient capital use. The Government wants to improve public investment disbursement and optimize capital allocation to boost productivity.
Chinh called for decisive action, urging policymakers to seize global opportunities and overcome challenges for economic growth. He emphasized the need for strategic decision-making and efficient resource use to accelerate Vietnam’s economic trajectory.
“The targets are set. The challenge now is implementation,” Chinh emphasized.
